Check out Pert v Monte Carlo … some still care by firstname.lastname@example.org. Here is an excerpt:
A note from a reader of some of my stuff on slideshare.net/jgoodpas:
“… I just read your slide presentation on using stats in project management and am a bit confused or perhaps disagree … that using Monte Carlo will improve the accuracy of a schedule or budget based on subjective…
The full article is available here.